The Broncos are coming off a very good performance against Kansas City, which means little. Denver has only one two-game winning streak since starting the season 2-0.
The Broncos are also traveling on a short week, a tougher challenge than Houston had hosting tonight’s game. But the Broncos are healthier, which is a major advantage. Houston has suffered many injuries this season. The Texans will be without quarterback Matt Schaub against Denver and might have to start rookie tailback Darius Walker if Ron Dayne can’t play because of an ankle injury.
Denver’s offense has scored at least 27 points in four of its past five games, and as long as the defense does its part, the Broncos should be able to keep their season alive.
Denver 31, Houston 23
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Kubiak-Calhoun connection
Gary Kubiak has plenty of ties to the Denver Broncos, but he also is close to Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun.
Calhoun was hired by Broncos coach Mike Shanahan before the 2003 season to be a part of a staff that included Kubiak, the offensive coordinator. Calhoun spent three seasons with Denver. When Kubiak was hired by the Texans to be their head coach, he hired Calhoun to be his offensive coordinator.
Kubiak praised Calhoun, who was Houston’s offensive coordinator before taking the job with Air Force.
“It’s interesting because when Mike brought him in, Mike told me from day one ‘This guy is going to be a great football coach,’” Kubiak said. “As a staff in Denver we could see that from the get go.”
Calhoun worked on defense for a season, then moved to the offensive staff. Kubiak said that experience helped Calhoun prepare to be a head coach.
"Troy’s knowledge of both sides of the ball and the game of football are tremendous,” Kubiak said. “As a person, this guy is off the charts. You guys see what he’s doing at Air Force. I’m happy for him.”
Calhoun was hired by Broncos coach Mike Shanahan before the 2003 season to be a part of a staff that included Kubiak, the offensive coordinator. Calhoun spent three seasons with Denver. When Kubiak was hired by the Texans to be their head coach, he hired Calhoun to be his offensive coordinator.
Kubiak praised Calhoun, who was Houston’s offensive coordinator before taking the job with Air Force.
“It’s interesting because when Mike brought him in, Mike told me from day one ‘This guy is going to be a great football coach,’” Kubiak said. “As a staff in Denver we could see that from the get go.”
Calhoun worked on defense for a season, then moved to the offensive staff. Kubiak said that experience helped Calhoun prepare to be a head coach.
"Troy’s knowledge of both sides of the ball and the game of football are tremendous,” Kubiak said. “As a person, this guy is off the charts. You guys see what he’s doing at Air Force. I’m happy for him.”
Friday, December 7, 2007
Week 14 prediction
The Broncos’ season officially became a disappointment with a two-game losing streak, but they’re still not as bad off as the Chiefs.
Kansas City has lost five straight games. Their quarterback rotation will stop on Brodie Croyle for this week’s game. Damon Huard started the first meeting against the Broncos. Running backs Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes are both out, and rookie Kolby Smith will start Sunday.
The Broncos are at least getting healthy. They should have every player on the active roster available except safety Nick Ferguson. And Denver still has a slight glimmer of hope at winning out and making the playoffs, which is more than the Chiefs have.
Broncos 21, Chiefs 17
Kansas City has lost five straight games. Their quarterback rotation will stop on Brodie Croyle for this week’s game. Damon Huard started the first meeting against the Broncos. Running backs Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes are both out, and rookie Kolby Smith will start Sunday.
The Broncos are at least getting healthy. They should have every player on the active roster available except safety Nick Ferguson. And Denver still has a slight glimmer of hope at winning out and making the playoffs, which is more than the Chiefs have.
Broncos 21, Chiefs 17
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Playoff chances dim
The Broncos’ loss at Oakland on Sunday was a crushing blow to their playoff chances, and not just because they added another loss to their record. They also significantly hurt their chances of winning the tiebreaker against San Diego.
If two teams from the same division are tied, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Denver can even that up with a win at San Diego on Dec. 24. The second tiebreaker is record in division games, and that is where the Broncos blew it Sunday. After losing to the Raiders, Denver’s division record is 2-2. San Diego is 3-1. Even if Denver hands San Diego its second division loss on Christmas Eve, the only way the Broncos win that tiebreaker is if the Chargers lose against Oakland in the season finale.
If the Broncos and Chargers each finish with two AFC West losses, the next tiebreaker is common opponents aside from the AFC West foes. Denver is 1-5 against common opponents (Chicago, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Detroit) with two remaining, so the best they can finish is 3-5. The Chargers are 3-3 in those games with two remaining. A Chargers win against Tennessee or Detroit – or a Broncos loss to Houston or Minnesota - would clinch that tiebreaker for San Diego.
The fourth tiebreaker is conference record and San Diego has an edge in that as well with a 6-3 record. Denver is 5-4.
So even if the Broncos go 4-0 the rest of the way, they likely either need the Chargers to lose to the Raiders on Dec. 30 or lose each of their other three remaining games for Denver to win the division.
If two teams from the same division are tied, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Denver can even that up with a win at San Diego on Dec. 24. The second tiebreaker is record in division games, and that is where the Broncos blew it Sunday. After losing to the Raiders, Denver’s division record is 2-2. San Diego is 3-1. Even if Denver hands San Diego its second division loss on Christmas Eve, the only way the Broncos win that tiebreaker is if the Chargers lose against Oakland in the season finale.
If the Broncos and Chargers each finish with two AFC West losses, the next tiebreaker is common opponents aside from the AFC West foes. Denver is 1-5 against common opponents (Chicago, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Detroit) with two remaining, so the best they can finish is 3-5. The Chargers are 3-3 in those games with two remaining. A Chargers win against Tennessee or Detroit – or a Broncos loss to Houston or Minnesota - would clinch that tiebreaker for San Diego.
The fourth tiebreaker is conference record and San Diego has an edge in that as well with a 6-3 record. Denver is 5-4.
So even if the Broncos go 4-0 the rest of the way, they likely either need the Chargers to lose to the Raiders on Dec. 30 or lose each of their other three remaining games for Denver to win the division.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Week 13 prediction
Based on last week’s results, the Broncos and Raiders appear to be heading in different directions. Oakland got a road win at Kansas City, its first AFC West win since 2004. Denver blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Bears.
But the Broncos have played very well against the Raiders since 1995, when Mike Shanahan became head coach, and are the better team on paper. The best reason to believe the Raiders will win is they should have beat Denver in the second week of the season. That was the game in which Shanahan called a timeout at the last moment as Sebastian Janikowski hit what Oakland thought was a game-winning field goal in overtime. Then Janikowski missed the second attempt and Denver ended up winning.
Based on that near-miss, the Raiders probably feel good about their chances of winning the rematch at home. But the Broncos have treated Oakland like their own home stadium, and have enough left for one more win there.
Broncos 20, Raiders 17
But the Broncos have played very well against the Raiders since 1995, when Mike Shanahan became head coach, and are the better team on paper. The best reason to believe the Raiders will win is they should have beat Denver in the second week of the season. That was the game in which Shanahan called a timeout at the last moment as Sebastian Janikowski hit what Oakland thought was a game-winning field goal in overtime. Then Janikowski missed the second attempt and Denver ended up winning.
Based on that near-miss, the Raiders probably feel good about their chances of winning the rematch at home. But the Broncos have treated Oakland like their own home stadium, and have enough left for one more win there.
Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Bailey drop-off
K.C. Joyner agrees that Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey isn’t having the same kind of season he had in 2006, when he almost won NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Joyner, who breaks down film for his extensive statistics on thefootballscientist.com, said he has done a full breakdown of three Broncos games. Bailey didn’t play in one, against Pittsburgh. The other two, against Jacksonville and Tennessee, Bailey didn’t dominate. Joyner said Bailey had 11 passes attempted at him when he had direct coverage and allowed nine completions for 76 yards. He also allowed a touchdown to Jacksonville’s Reggie Williams.
Joyner admits two games is a small sample size, but said it’s telling because Jacksonville's and Tennessee’s receivers are mediocre. Bailey allowed 4.7 yards per attempt his way last year, which was the best rating for any cornerback in the four seasons Joyner has kept the stat. The 6.9 yards-per-attempt for Bailey’s two games Joyner has charted is not very good. Joyner considers a 7-yard-per-attempt rating for a cornerback to be average.
Joyner, who breaks down film for his extensive statistics on thefootballscientist.com, said he has done a full breakdown of three Broncos games. Bailey didn’t play in one, against Pittsburgh. The other two, against Jacksonville and Tennessee, Bailey didn’t dominate. Joyner said Bailey had 11 passes attempted at him when he had direct coverage and allowed nine completions for 76 yards. He also allowed a touchdown to Jacksonville’s Reggie Williams.
Joyner admits two games is a small sample size, but said it’s telling because Jacksonville's and Tennessee’s receivers are mediocre. Bailey allowed 4.7 yards per attempt his way last year, which was the best rating for any cornerback in the four seasons Joyner has kept the stat. The 6.9 yards-per-attempt for Bailey’s two games Joyner has charted is not very good. Joyner considers a 7-yard-per-attempt rating for a cornerback to be average.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Week 12 prediction
If a team believes in itself, it usually continues to play well. The opposite is true. A losing streak can cause a team to go in the tank once something goes wrong in the next game.
The laws of momentum will be on display this week. Denver has seemingly turned around its season with a two-game winning streak. A modest streak, sure, but it does have the Broncos back in a first-place tie in the AFC West. The Bears have lost two of three since a dramatic last-minute win at Philadelphia. The quarterback situation is a mess, and Rex Grossman is back in the starting job this week. The Bears are 4-6, have no shot of catching Green Bay for the division crown, and after a NFC title last season they are one of the NFL’s disappointing teams.
The Broncos also appear to be a good matchup for the Bears. Chicago has struggled to run the ball all season behind Cedric Benson, and Grossman has a penchant for interceptions. As long as the Broncos offense is efficient and relatively mistake-free, they should continue on the right path in the second half of the season.
Broncos 19, Bears 12
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